Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/17/2026]

The Arizona Diamondbacks will face the St. Louis Cardinals, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Chase Field on Friday, commencing at 9:40 PM ET.

The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly (7-8, 5.38 ERA) to the mound, while the Cardinals have opted for Michael McGreevy (4-7, 3.01 ERA).

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 53.7% win probability over the Cardinals.

This article offers further insights into Friday's Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 53.7% chance of defeating the Cardinals.

According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 62.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 51.8% chance of going over,.

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks odds [7/17/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Cardinals	Diamondbacks
Run Line	+1.5 (-210)	-1.5 (+175)
Moneyline	+108	-106
Total	o9.5 (+122)	u9.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Run Line	Diamondbacks -1.5	+175
Moneyline	Diamondbacks	-106
Total	Over 9.5	+122

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details

Friday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals at Chase Field is scheduled to commence at 9:40 PM ET.

• Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
• Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
• Venue: Chase Field

Conclusion

We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.