Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [8/14/2026]

MLB action continues on Friday at 2:20 PM ET as the St. Louis Cardinals square off with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA) will start for the Cubs, pitting him against Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA) for the Cardinals.

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Cardinals and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 62.3% chance of beating the Cardinals.

According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 54.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 57.7% chance of going over,.

Cardinals vs. Cubs odds [8/14/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-120) / Cubs -1.5 (+115)
• Moneyline: Cardinals +175, Cubs -174

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cardinals vs. Cubs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 @ -120 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Cardinals @ +175 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 7.5 @ -117 via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cardinals vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details

Friday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Cardinals at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.

• Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
• Date: Friday, August 14, 2026
• Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
• Venue: Wrigley Field

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 62.3% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.