Jul 22, 2026
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Read Article Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Chicago Cubs will square off with the St. Louis Cardinals in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Saturday, starting at 8:08 PM ET.
Shota Imanaga (5-6, 4.30 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Cubs, while the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Cardinals vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLB game between the Cardinals and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Cubs a 60.3% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 57.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54.3% chance of going over,.
Cardinals vs. Cubs odds [7/4/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cardinals | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-149) | -1.5 (+128) |
| Moneyline | +146 | -162 |
| Total | o8 (-105) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +128 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +146 |
| Total | Over 8 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cardinals vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Cubs and Cardinals at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 8:08 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
- Time: 8:08 PM ET/5:08PM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 60.3% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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