Aug 30, 2026
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Read Article Rays vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/23/2026]
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays will lock horns in MLB action at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.
Shane Baz (4-13, 4.02 ERA) will be on the bump for the Orioles, while the Rays have opted for Nick Martinez (12-4, 3.05 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 51.8% win probability over the Rays.
This article offers a complete Rays vs. Orioles prediction, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Rays and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Orioles a 51.8% chance of defeating the Rays.
According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 63.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 57.6% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Orioles odds [8/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+167) / Orioles +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Rays +104, Orioles -104
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 @ -170 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Orioles @ -104 via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ -115 via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Orioles and Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Sunday, August 23, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 51.8% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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