Padres vs. D-Backs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Padres vs. D-Backs MLB game on August 4, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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MLB
Padres
Randy Vásquez 6-6, 4.45 ERA
9
4
Aug 4, 9:40 PM ET Chase Field
D-Backs
Eduardo Rodriguez 10-3, 2.48 ERA
Aug 4, 9:40 PM ET Chase Field
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 RHE
Padres
3 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 9 16 0
D-Backs
0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 6 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Padres
    100%
  • D-Backs
    0%
Win Probability
Baseball infield diamond diagram
Last At Bat
Outs
Tim Tawa grounds out to second base, Jake Cronenworth to Ty France.
Quick Box Score
Padres Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 G. Workman LF2000001.0000.000
2 L. Rengifo DH5210000.2000.400
3 M. Machado 3B5134001.6001.400
4 T. France 1B5000002.0000.000
5 J. Merrill CF5232000.6001.200
6 S. Song SS0100010.0001.000
7 F. Fermin C5021000.4001.000
8 J. Cronenworth 2B5031000.6001.200
9 J. Bowen RF4110001.2500.650
D-Backs Hitting
No.PlayerPosABRHRBIHRBBSOAVGOPS
1 C. Carroll RF4000000.0000.000
2 G. Perdomo SS4020000.5001.000
3 J. Barrosa CF2110001.5001.000
4 K. Marte 2B4000001.0000.000
5 N. Arenado 3B4112100.2501.250
6 L. Nootbaar DH2000020.0000.500
7 T. Tawa 1B4100000.0000.000
8 J. McCann C3112100.3331.666
9 R. Waldschmidt LF3010001.3330.666

Padres vs. D-Backs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Padres vs. D-Backs
  • Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
  • Time: 9:40 PM ET
  • Venue: Chase Field

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: D-Backs favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 9
  • Moneyline Odds: Padres +113, D-Backs -113

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Padres: 45%
  • D-Backs: 55%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Padres a win probability of 45%, while the D-Backs have a win probability of 55%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the D-Backs are more likely to beat the Padres in the MLB game at Chase Field on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Padres vs. D-Backs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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For further insights, explore our expert MLB predictions and the best MLB bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes MLB props, MLB futures, MLB odds, and the latest MLB news.