Red Sox vs. White Sox odds as expert reveals Wilyer Abreu homer chances

Wilyer Abreu leads MLB with nine homers since the All-Star break as Boston hosts the Chicago White Sox tonight. See how that's shaped Dave Garofolo's Red Sox vs. White Sox prediction.

Boston hosts the Chicago White Sox in Round 135 · 2026 on Thursday, August 6th, 2026, with first pitch set for 7:10pm (ET) at Fenway Park. The Red Sox arrive as clear favorites, and one bat in particular has driven the goodwill around this club.

Wilyer Abreu has been the story of Boston's second half. The outfielder leads all of MLB with nine home runs since the All-Star break, a power surge that has fed the broader chatter about the Red Sox turning meaningful baseball into a genuine run this summer.

The form goes beyond the long ball, too. Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last 10 appearances, and he is priced at +122 to drive in a run again and continue that MLB trend tonight. Heading into this matchup against the White Sox, Dimers' MLB hitter projections position Abreu with solid probabilities across multiple hitting props.

The outfielder carries a 59.3% chance of recording at least 1 hit, making a single safety his most expected output of the evening, though his chances of a multi-hit performance sit at 25.5% for 2+ hits. When it comes to run production, the Dimers player projections hub gives him a 31.1% probability to drive in an RBI, while his chances of clearing the fences with a home run sit at 13.6%.

The combination of a surging hitter and a struggling opponent on the mound prompted a fresh prediction from Dimers expert Dave Garofolo, with the markets already leaning heavily toward Boston.

"Wilyer Abreu is the hottest hitter in baseball right now, and he's doing it against a White Sox staff that's been leaking runs all year," Garofolo told Dimers.com. "I've got Boston winning this one comfortably, something like 6-3."

Garofolo's updated MLB predictions, along with the latest odds from the leading prediction markets and sportsbooks, forms the basis of the preview below.

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox preview:

Check out all the important details on the game, as well as the latest odds.

Game details:

The key information you need before Boston Red Sox vs. Chigaco White Sox in Round 135 · 2026.

• Teams: Boston vs. CHI White Sox
• Date: Thursday, August 6th, 2026
• Start time: 7:10 PM ET
• Competition: Round 135 · 2026
• Starting pitchers: Ranger Suarez (3.15 ERA, 4-3) for Boston, Luis Castillo (5.06 ERA, 3-9) for Chicago
• Standings: MLB standings
• Team news: Red Sox roster and news

Red Sox vs. White Sox odds:

Here is how the game is priced across sportsbooks and prediction markets, set against the Dimers model's projections.

On the prediction markets, Boston sit at a 64¢ contract on Novig, implying a roughly 64% market probability, while the White Sox trade at 36¢. Polymarket has the Over 8.5 available at a 53¢ contract. On the sportsbook side, BetRivers offers Boston -1.5 at +114 and Hard Rock Bet lists Under 8.5 at +115.

The odds and lines featured here are the best available from selected betting sites and prediction markets at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox

Abreu's post-break power surge, layered on top of a Castillo start that carries a 5.06 ERA, is the catalyst for Garofolo's call. The matchup points firmly in one direction.

Garofolo's prediction: Boston to win 6-3, with the game clearing Over 8.5 total runs.

"The value I like most is the Over," Garofolo said. "Our model has it at 57% while Polymarket is only pricing a 53¢ contract, so there's a real gap. If Abreu keeps swinging like this, the runs will come."

The expert's lean lines up with where the Dimers model finds an edge. On the moneyline, Boston's 64¢ contract on Novig sits right on top of the model's 63% projection, so there is little separation there. The clearer disagreement is on the total, where the model's 57% read on the Over is well ahead of Polymarket's 53¢ implied price. The model even flags a slim edge on the White Sox +1.5 run line at Novig's 53¢ contract, a nod to Castillo keeping it competitive despite the tough matchup.

These predictions and prices are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Where the markets see value:

The tightest pricing is on the moneyline, where Boston's 64¢ Novig contract essentially mirrors the model's 63% figure, leaving no meaningful edge for backers of the favorite. The Over 8.5 is where the numbers open up: a 53¢ Polymarket contract against a 57% model read is the standout gap on the board, a roughly four-point edge.

For anyone weighing the underdog, the White Sox +1.5 at 53¢ on Novig carries a slim model edge as well, reflecting how a one-run swing could keep Chicago inside the number. Prices move in real time, so these gaps can close quickly. You can track the latest across MLB at the Dimers MLB best bets page.

Final thoughts on Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox on Thursday:

Boston welcome the White Sox to Fenway at 7:10pm (ET) on Thursday, August 6th, with Ranger Suarez opposing Luis Castillo. With Wilyer Abreu leading MLB in home runs since the break, Dimers expert Dave Garofolo lands on Boston 6-3 and an Over 8.5 lean. The odds cited here are drawn from Novig, Polymarket, BetRivers and Hard Rock Bet and are accurate at the time of publishing.

Please note that when engaging in online betting or prediction market trading, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and seek reputable sources for accurate and up-to-date information.