Sep 23, 2026
Angels vs. Athletics prediction: Why Athletics is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Read Article Astros vs. Mariners prediction: Seattle favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.1% win probability for the Mariners at T-Mobile Park.
The Seattle Mariners will face the Houston Astros in MLB action at T-Mobile Park on Wednesday, starting at 10:10 PM ET.
George Kirby (9-11, 4.24 ERA) will start on the mound for the Mariners, while the Astros will counter with Ethan Pecko (1-0, 3.77 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Mariners as the most likely winner in this Astros vs. Mariners prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Mariners prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Astros and Mariners, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mariners a 55.1% chance of beating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 61.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.0% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-178) / Mariners -1.5 (+174)
- Moneyline: Astros +113, Mariners -117
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mariners -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mariners @ 54¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Mariners and Astros at T-Mobile Park is scheduled to begin at 10:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- Time: 10:10 PM ET/7:10PM PT
- Venue: T-Mobile Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mariners, with a 55.1% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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