Sep 24, 2026
MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Jesús Sánchez [9/24/2026]
Read Article Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 57.0% win probability for the Pirates at PNC Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the St. Louis Cardinals in MLB action at PNC Park on Wednesday, beginning at 6:40 PM ET.
Lake Bachar (1-4, 3.56 ERA) will get the ball for the Pirates, while the Cardinals are going with Matthew Liberatore (5-14, 5.36 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Pirates as the most likely winner in this Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 57.0% chance of defeating the Cardinals. According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 61.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 50.4% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-174) / Pirates -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +127, Pirates -127
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+106/-108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Pirates @ 56¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB action between the Pirates and Cardinals at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 57.0% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Every Bet, Every Game, Every Day Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$119.99 $149.99
6 months $20 per month Save $30.00 · 20% LIMITED TIME OFFER BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$169.99 $199.99
12 months $14.17 per month Save $30.00 · 15% LIMITED TIME OFFER Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
