Sep 24, 2026
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Read Article Marlins vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 65.6% win probability for the Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins will lock horns in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Thursday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
The Cubs will have Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Tyler Phillips (5-6, 3.45 ERA) for the Marlins.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Marlins vs. Cubs prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Cubs prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 65.6% chance of beating the Marlins. According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 53.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-122) / Cubs -1.5 (+122)
- Moneyline: Marlins +186, Cubs -190
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 @ +122 via FanDuel
- Moneyline: Cubs @ 66¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Marlins at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 65.6% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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