Sep 24, 2026
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Read Article Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 59.3% win probability for the Pirates at PNC Park.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals will lock horns in MLB action at PNC Park on Thursday, starting at 12:35 PM ET.
The Pirates will have Paul Skenes (10-11, 3.91 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Cardinals have opted for Kyle Leahy (10-5, 3.65 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Pirates as the most likely winner in this Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Paul Skenes' pitching projections.
Cardinals vs. Pirates prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Pirates a 59.3% chance of defeating the Cardinals. According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 59.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 6.5 runs has a 56.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-156) / Pirates -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +150, Pirates -150
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-117/+111)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ +150 via FanDuel
- Moneyline: Cardinals @ 40¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 54¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB game between the Pirates and Cardinals at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 12:35 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 59.3% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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