Sep 23, 2026
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Read Article Padres vs. Dodgers prediction: Dodgers favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 66.4% win probability for the Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the San Diego Padres in MLB action at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, commencing at 10:10 PM ET.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-8, 2.51 ERA) will be on the bump for the Dodgers, while the Padres have opted for Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.60 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Dodgers as the most likely winner in this Padres vs. Dodgers prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Yoshinobu Yamamoto's pitching projections.
Padres vs. Dodgers prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB game between the Padres and Dodgers, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Dodgers a 66.4% chance of beating the Padres. According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-104) / Dodgers -1.5 (+104)
- Moneyline: Padres +194, Dodgers -199
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+113/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Dodgers @ 67¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Dodgers and Padres at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is scheduled to start at 10:10 PM ET.
- Who: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- Time: 10:10 PM ET/7:10PM PT
- Venue: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Dodgers, with a 66.4% win probability, will likely beat the Padres in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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