Nashville SC vs. NY Red Bulls prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [11/1/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Sunday at 4:30 PM ET as NY Red Bulls locks horns with Nashville in the first round at Geodis Park.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Nashville as the most likely winner in this Nashville vs. NY Red Bulls prediction.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Nashville SC vs. NY Red Bulls prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLS game between Nashville and NY Red Bulls, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 69.0% chance of Nashville winning, a 13.3% chance for NY Red Bulls, and a 17.7% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 64.0% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: NY Red Bulls +488, Nashville -186
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-233/+223)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Nashville @ -186 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +223 via Polymarket

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Nashville win being the most probable:

• Nashville 2-0 NY Red Bulls (10.3% probability)
• Nashville 2-1 NY Red Bulls (9.7%)
• Nashville 1-0 NY Red Bulls (8.7%)

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's MLS game between Nashville and NY Red Bulls in MLS at Geodis Park is scheduled to commence at 4:30 PM ET.

• Who: Nashville SC vs. NY Red Bulls
• Date: Sunday, November 1, 2026
• Time: 4:30 PM ET/1:30 PM PT
• Venue: Geodis Park

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Nashville has a 69.0% win probability on Sunday, NY Red Bulls have a 13.3% win probability, and there is a 17.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.