Nov 7, 2026
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Read Article Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [11/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC predictions for MLS Cup Saturday.
Philadelphia and Toronto will meet in the MLS Cup first round at Subaru Park on Saturday, with kickoff at 4:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Philadelphia as the most likely winner in this Philadelphia vs. Toronto prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's MLS game between Philadelphia and Toronto, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model indicates a 70.2% chance of Philadelphia winning, a 13.1% chance for Toronto, and a 16.7% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 68.7% chance of going over., according to our model.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Toronto +1011, Philadelphia -326
- Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-315/+300)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Toronto @ +1011 via Polymarket
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +300 via Polymarket
According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Correct score projections
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-1 Philadelphia win being the most probable:
- Philadelphia 2-1 Toronto (9.4% probability)
- Philadelphia 2-0 Toronto (9.2%)
- Philadelphia 3-1 Toronto (7.9%)
Game info & kickoff details
Saturday's MLS game between Philadelphia and Toronto in MLS at Subaru Park is scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Union vs. Toronto FC
- Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
- Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00 PM PT
- Venue: Subaru Park
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Philadelphia has a 70.2% win probability on Saturday, Toronto has a 13.1% win probability, and there is a 16.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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