Minnesota United vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [11/7/2026]

MLS Cup action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as San Jose takes on Minnesota in the first round at Allianz Field.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects Minnesota as the most likely winner in this Minnesota vs. San Jose prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Minnesota United vs. San Jose Earthquakes prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLS matchup between Minnesota and San Jose, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 59.4% chance of Minnesota winning, a 21.1% chance for San Jose, and a 19.5% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 70.5% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: San Jose +376, Minnesota -144
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-257/+233)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Minnesota @ -144 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +233 via Novig

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Minnesota to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Minnesota win being the most probable:

• Minnesota 2-1 San Jose (9.3% probability)
• Minnesota 1-1 San Jose (8%)
• Minnesota 3-1 San Jose (7.2%)

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS action between Minnesota and San Jose in MLS at Allianz Field is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota United vs. San Jose Earthquakes
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Allianz Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Minnesota has a 59.4% win probability on Saturday, San Jose has a 21.1% win probability, and there is a 19.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.