Toronto FC vs. D.C. United prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/28/2026]

Toronto will face D.C. United in the MLS Cup first round at BMO Field on Wednesday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.

Dimers' proven MLS model projects Toronto as the most likely winner in this Toronto vs. D.C. United prediction.

This article offers further insights into Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Toronto FC vs. D.C. United prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLS game between Toronto and D.C. United, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 55.8% chance of Toronto winning, a 22.8% chance for D.C. United, and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 63.5% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: D.C. United +317, Toronto -110
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-163/+163)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toronto @ -110 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -163 via Polymarket

According to our best MLS bets, the top play to make on this game is Toronto to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Toronto win being the most probable:

• Toronto 2-1 D.C. United (9.7% probability)
• Toronto 1-1 D.C. United (9.5%)
• Toronto 2-0 D.C. United (7.9%)

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's MLS matchup between Toronto and D.C. United in MLS at BMO Field is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto FC vs. D.C. United
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: BMO Field

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toronto has a 55.8% win probability on Wednesday, D.C. United has a 22.8% win probability, and there is a 21.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.