Minnesota vs. Sporting KC Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Minnesota vs. Sporting KC MLS match on July 22, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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MLS
Minnesota
1
2
Jul 22, 8:30 PM ET
Sporting KC
Jul 22, 8:30 PM ET
Sporting KCSKC
Score Summary
MinnesotaMIN
D. Joveljic (28')
Soccer ball icon
M. Garcia (54')
Soccer ball icon
D. Padelford (75')
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Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Sporting KC
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Minnesota
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
85'
Substitution
Substitution for Minnesota United: J. Gressel replaces T. Chancalay
84'
Yellow Card
B. Hlongwane (Minnesota United) cautioned
79'
Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Reid replaces E. Karic
79'
Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: J. Bartlett replaces Z. Bassong
75'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Minnesota United by D. Padelford, assisted by J. Pereyra
1-2
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Minnesota United: J. Diaz replaces D. Padelford
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Minnesota United: M. Gonzalez replaces O. Gene
74'
Yellow Card
D. Joveljic (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: K. Agyabeng replaces M. Garcia
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Kansas City: S. Afrifa replaces Capita
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Minnesota United: M. Dieng replaces K. Yeboah
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Minnesota United: B. Hlongwane replaces K. Duncan
56'
Yellow Card
J. Pereyra (Minnesota United) cautioned
54'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by M. Garcia, assisted by J. Davis
0-2
45'
Yellow Card
Capita (Sporting Kansas City) cautioned
28'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Sporting Kansas City by D. Joveljic, assisted by Capita
0-1
21'
Yellow Card
K. Duncan (Minnesota United) cautioned

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Minnesota vs. Sporting KC: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Minnesota vs. Sporting KC
  • Date: Wednesday, July 22, 2026
  • Time: 8:30 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Minnesota +125, Sporting KC +240, draw +290
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-175/+135)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Minnesota: 43.2%
  • Sporting KC: 33.0%
  • Draw: 23.7%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' MLS data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Minnesota 1-1 Sporting KC (10.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Minnesota vs. Sporting KC? Prediction & correct score

Minnesota is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 43.2%.

The most likely correct score is Minnesota 1-1 Sporting KC.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Minnesota vs. Sporting KC, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.