Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on Wednesday (9:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.

Our Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction gives Oklahoma City a 71.9% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Thunder moneyline, too.

Thunder vs. Mavericks key predictions

• Predicted score: Thunder 117-111 Mavericks
• Thunder win probability: 71.9%
• Mavericks win probability: 28.1%
• Mavericks +4.5 spread: 53.3% cover probability
• Over 227.5 points: 51.1% probability

Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.

Thunder vs. Mavericks odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Thunder moneyline: 63¢ (Novig)
• Mavericks moneyline: 37¢ (Novig)
• Thunder -4.5: -115 (DraftKings)
• Mavericks +4.5: -105 (DraftKings)
• Over 227.5 points: 52¢ (Novig)
• Under 227.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Thunder vs. Mavericks pick: Thunder moneyline (63¢)

Our model makes the Thunder the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Thunder moneyline at 63¢ on Novig, too.

Those odds give the Thunder an implied win probability of 63.0%, while our model puts it at 71.9%.

That's an 8.9% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

Thunder vs. Mavericks player projections

Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 30.7 points, plus 7.2 assists and 4.1 rebounds. The Thunder have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Mavericks' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder): 30.7 points
2. Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): 22.0
3. Jared McCain (Thunder): 17.8
4. Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 17.7
5. Ajay Mitchell (Thunder): 16.8

Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.

Get every Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

Thunder vs. Mavericks game details

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 9:30 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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