Oct 29, 2026
NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include Ja Morant [10/29/2026]
Read Article NBA first basket predictions and picks for Thursday, October 29, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 10/29.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, October 29, 2026, are live, with the Grizzlies' Ty Jerome projected as the most likely player to score first. Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell round out the top three.
Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players
- Ty Jerome (Grizzlies): 15.6% probability
- Ja Morant (Trail Blazers): 14.6%
- Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers): 13.4%
- CJ McCollum (Hawks): 13.3%
- Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers): 13.0%
- Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans): 13.0%
- Domantas Sabonis (Kings): 12.6%
- Zach LaVine (Kings): 12.5%
- Zion Williamson (Pelicans): 12.1%
- Precious Achiuwa (Kings): 11.2%
Best NBA first basket bet tonight
The highest first basket probability doesn't necessarily mean the best bet. We identify betting value by comparing our model's probabilities with the implied probabilities of available sportsbook odds.
Ja Morant first basket scorer
- Odds: +900 (FanDuel)
- Edge: 4.6%
- Probability: 14.6%
- Matchup: Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers (10:00 PM ET)
The Trail Blazers' Ja Morant has a 14.6% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 10% implied by FanDuel's +900 odds. That's a 4.6% edge, the largest we've identified on Thursday's NBA slate.
Morant is also in our top three most likely first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.
Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.
About these NBA first basket predictions
Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.
Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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