Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Minnesota Timberwolves are favored to beat the Golden State Warriors at Target Center on Wednesday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.

Our Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction gives Minnesota a 64.4% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Timberwolves moneyline, too.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Timberwolves 116-111 Warriors
• Timberwolves win probability: 64.4%
• Warriors win probability: 35.6%
• Timberwolves -4.5 spread: 50.5% cover probability
• Over 225.5 points: 52.6% probability

Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Warriors moneyline: 40¢ (Novig)
• Timberwolves moneyline: -150 (fanatics)
• Warriors +4.5: 52¢ (Polymarket)
• Timberwolves -4.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Over 225.5 points: -110 (fanatics)
• Under 225.5 points: -110 (fanatics)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves pick: Timberwolves moneyline (-150)

Our model makes the Timberwolves the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Timberwolves moneyline at -150 on Fanatics, too.

Those odds give the Timberwolves an implied win probability of 60.0%, while our model puts it at 64.4%.

That's a 4.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves player projections

Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Warriors star Stephen Curry leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 25.3 points, plus 4.3 assists and 3.4 rebounds. The Timberwolves have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Warriors' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• 1. Stephen Curry (Warriors): 25.3 points\n2. LaMelo Ball (Timberwolves): 23.0\n3. Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors): 19.8\n4. Ayo Dosunmu (Timberwolves): 17.5\n5. Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves): 15.8

Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.

Get every Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

Warriors vs. Timberwolves game details

• Matchup: Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Target Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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