Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 28, 2026

The Atlanta Hawks are favored to beat the Miami Heat at State Farm Arena on Wednesday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NBA model.

Our Heat vs. Hawks prediction gives Atlanta a 61.0% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Hawks moneyline, too.

Heat vs. Hawks: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Hawks 121-118 Heat
• Hawks win probability: 61.0%
• Heat win probability: 39.0%
• Heat +1.5 spread: 52.3% cover probability
• Under 240.5 points: 52.0% probability

Our NBA predictions project each team's score based on player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities from these projections, comparing them against current odds to find betting value.

Heat vs. Hawks odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Heat moneyline: 45¢ (Novig)
• Hawks moneyline: 56¢ (Novig)
• Heat +1.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Hawks -1.5: 52¢ (Novig)
• Over 240.5 points: 54¢ (Polymarket)
• Under 240.5 points: 47¢ (Polymarket)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Heat vs. Hawks pick: Hawks moneyline (56¢)

Our model makes the Hawks the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Hawks moneyline at 56¢ on Novig, too.

Those odds give the Hawks an implied win probability of 55.6%, while our model puts it at 61.0%.

That's a 5.5% edge (accounting for rounding), the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

Heat vs. Hawks player projections

Dimers' NBA player projections cover points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent performance, expected minutes, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Heat star Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the scoring projections for this matchup with 30 points, plus 11.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The Hawks have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Heat's two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): 30.0 points\n2. Jalen Johnson (Hawks): 22.9\n3. Bam Adebayo (Heat): 19.5\n4. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks): 19.3\n5. CJ McCollum (Hawks): 18.9

Projections are estimates, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to judge value.

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• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

Heat vs. Hawks game details

• Matchup: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NBA models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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