Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 24, 2026

The San Antonio Spurs are favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday, according to Dimers' NBA pregame model.

Our Spurs vs. Mavericks prediction gives San Antonio an 82.4% chance of winning at American Airlines Center, but the latest odds suggest value in betting on the Mavericks to cover the +12.5 spread.

Spurs vs. Mavericks: Key predictions

• Predicted score: Spurs 120-109 Mavericks
• Spurs win probability: 82.4%
• Mavericks win probability: 17.6%
• Mavericks +12.5 spread: 55.7% cover probability
• Under 231.5 points: 52.9% probability

Dimers' NBA pregame model uses machine learning to predict each team's score, accounting for player performance, expected minutes, matchups, availability, and home-court advantage. These scores inform our NBA predictions, including win, spread, and total probabilities, which we compare with available odds to identify betting value.

Spurs vs. Mavericks odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets monitored by Dimers.

• Spurs moneyline: 84¢ (Novig)
• Mavericks moneyline: +490 (FanDuel)
• Spurs -12.5: 51¢ (Novig)
• Mavericks +12.5: 49¢ (Novig)
• Over 231.5 points: 50¢ (Novig)
• Under 231.5 points: 51¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Mavericks +12.5 (49¢)

The Spurs may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is the Mavericks to cover the +12.5 spread at 49¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Mavericks have a 49.0% chance of covering the spread, while our model puts that probability at 55.7%.

That's a 6.6% edge (accounting for rounding) in the Mavericks' favor, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Spurs vs. Mavericks player projections

Unlike our team-focused NBA pregame model, Dimers' NBA player props model projects points, rebounds, assists, and more, accounting for recent form, expected minutes, injuries, lineup changes, and defensive matchups.

Victor Wembanyama leads our scoring projections for this matchup, with the Spurs star also expected to add 11.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists. The Spurs have three players among the top five projected scorers, compared to the Mavericks' two.

Top 5 projected scorers

• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs): 27.0 points
• Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): 19.1
• Stephon Castle (Spurs): 18.1
• Naji Marshall (Mavericks): 17.3
• Dylan Harper (Spurs): 17.1

Projections across all major stat categories are available for every player expected to take the court on our NBA player projections page.

These are statistical projections, not betting recommendations. Compare them with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Spurs vs. Mavericks predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Saturday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.
• Points, rebounds, and assists projections for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks markets.

See our full range of Spurs vs. Mavericks predictions.

Spurs vs. Mavericks game details

• Matchup: San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
• Venue: American Airlines Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NBA models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.