Alaves vs. Osasuna prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/6/2026]

Alaves and Osasuna will lock horns in La Liga at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Sunday, with kickoff at 12:30 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced La Liga model projects Alaves as the most likely winner in this Alaves vs. Osasuna prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, take a look at our insight into the La Liga title race, and how Mourinho can lead Real Madrid back to the top.

Alaves vs. Osasuna prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's La Liga match between Alaves and Osasuna, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model indicates a 40.1% chance of Alaves winning, a 31.7% chance for Osasuna, and a 28.2% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 59.5% chance of staying under, with a 53.4% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Osasuna +277, Alaves +133
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+156/-160)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Osasuna @ +277 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +156 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Osasuna to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-1 Osasuna (13.2% probability)
• Alaves 1-0 Osasuna (12.3%)
• Alaves 0-1 Osasuna (10.6%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 46.6% chance of both sides finding the net and a 53.4% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's La Liga game between Alaves and Osasuna at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to begin in the USA at 12:30 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Osasuna
• Date: Sunday, September 6, 2026
• Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30AM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 40.1% win probability on Sunday, Osasuna has a 31.7% win probability, and there is a 28.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.