With the Knicks up 2-0, see how our Game 3 predictions stack up against the Novig exchange

The 2026 NBA Finals shifts to Madison Square Garden on Monday, June 8th, with the New York Knicks holding a 2-0 series lead — and we ran Dimers' predictive model against the current prediction market prices to see where the sharpest gaps are. The short answer: the Over 216.5 at +110 is a highly glaring mismatch we found, and the Knicks moneyline holds genuine positive expected value even at -116. But the spread? The model says pass. Here's the full breakdown.

Tip-off is at 8:30 PM ET. Dimers gives the Knicks a 57.7% win probability and projects a final score of 109–107 New York, with Victor Wembanyama leading all scorers. For our top player prop picks backed by the same model, see our Knicks vs. Spurs Game 3 best player props guide. New to Novig? The Novig promo code DIMERS unlocks $50 in Novig Coins for Game 3 and the entire NBA Finals with a $5 purchase.

Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3: Key Details

Where Dimers' Model Diverges From the Market

Running Dimers' probabilities against the best available prediction market prices reveals three distinct situations for Game 3: one significant edge, one thin positive edge, and one bet the model actively fades. You can track all of Dimers' NBA best bets in real time as tip-off approaches.

Biggest Gap: Over 216.5 (High Edge) ⭐

This is the standout divergence of the night. Dimers' model puts the probability of the total going over 216.5 at 51.1% — and the best available price on this bet is +110 on Novig. Because the market has underpriced this line with plus-money value, that translates into a noticeable **2.6% positive edge** which Dimers flags as a designated Sweet Spot opportunity. It's the cleanest total-market value available on the board.

The projected score of 109–107—a combined 216 points—lands right on the line, but the favorable +110 price on Novig shifts the math strongly into the bettor's advantage. Both offenses are projected to excel: Wembanyama (28 pts), Castle (17 pts), and Fox (17 pts) powering the Spurs attack, while Brunson (25 pts), Towns (19 pts), and Anunoby (18 pts) fuel New York's end. The peer-to-peer market has underpriced the Over for what Dimers sees as a tightly contested, high-stakes Finals environment.

Thin Positive Edge: Knicks Moneyline

With a 57.7% win probability, the Knicks are Dimers' clear pick to win Game 3. The best available moneyline price is -116 on Novig, which Dimers rates as a 4.2% positive edge. The model and the market are broadly in agreement that New York holds the upper hand at home—the gap here provides real, actionable value. The underlying conviction remains firm: the Knicks' depth and home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden give them a structural edge that Novig's commission-free marketplace allows you to capitalize on without paying a massive house tax.

Where the Model and Market Agree — to Fade: Knicks -1.5

The Knicks are listed as narrow 1.5-point favorites on the exchange, and here the market has it right in a way that should give bettors pause. Dimers' model rates the probability of New York covering at exactly 50.0% — a perfect coin flip — resulting in a flat or thin margin at the best available price of -106. The model is confident the Knicks win the game outright; it is not confident risking a spread cover in a projected two-point game (109-107). With the true variance baked in at current prices, trading the spread is a pass when the straight moneyline offers a cleaner mathematical advantage.

Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3: Dimers' Projected Box Score

Dimers' model projects the following stat lines for the key contributors in Game 3. These projections are drawn from Dimers' live NBA player projections tool and inform both the game picks above and the player prop analysis in our Game 3 props guide.

San Antonio Spurs

New York Knicks

Matchup Analysis: Why Dimers Favors the Knicks

The Knicks' 57.7% win probability is driven by two interconnected factors: home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden, and their balanced scoring versatility. Dimers' NBA player projections have Jalen Brunson posting a highly efficient line of 25 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists. While Victor Wembanyama remains a massive structural problem inside (projected 28 points, 11 rebounds), the Knicks' ability to spread the floor with Towns (19 pts) and Anunoby (18 pts) allows them to neutralize San Antonio's primary rim protection by pulling him out of the paint.

San Antonio's path to an upset depends heavily on transition disruption, but traveling into a hostile MSG down 0-2 shifts the psychological momentum. Dimers projects the game to turn into a half-court chess match. Because Novig allows users to trade peer-to-peer without a traditional sportsbook hold, the ability to grab the Knicks at a fair price of -116 represents premium value compared to heavily juiced traditional bookmaker offerings.

How to Bet Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3

For the Over 216.5 in particular, Novig is offering the best available price at +110 — a meaningful improvement over traditional sportsbooks. New users can activate the Novig promo code DIMERS to claim $50 in Novig Coins with a simple $5 purchase, valid for Game 3 and the remainder of the 2026 NBA Finals. For traditional sportsbook users, Dimers' NBA best odds page will surface the sharpest lines across all major books in real time ahead of Monday's tip-off. You can also track the full Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 matchup hub on Dimers for live updates to predictions, probabilities, and lines as game time approaches.

Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 Prediction: Final Pick

Best Bet: Over 216.5 (+110) — Sweet Spot, 51.1% probability, 2.6% edge on Novig.

Moneyline: Knicks (-116) — 57.7% win probability, 4.2% positive edge. The cleaner outright play to back New York at home.

Pass: Knicks -1.5 (-106) — Coin-flip cover probability at 50.0%. The model predicts a strict 2-point game, making the point spread an unnecessary risk.