Falcons vs. Packers prediction favors Green Bay to win ‘TNF’ Week 3 [2026]

Since our Falcons-Packers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NFL game between the Falcons and Packers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Packers a 67.0% chance of defeating the Falcons in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Packers winning 23-18.

Key factors favoring the Packers:

• Green Bay Packers Power Rankings
• Green Bay Packers Offensive Efficiency
• Green Bay Packers Home Ground Advantage

According to our model, the Packers (-4.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 54.2% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Atlanta Falcons Form
• Weather / Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Falcons +4.5 (+100) / Packers -4.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Falcons +223, Packers -228
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Packers -4.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Falcons @ 31¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 43.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 43.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Falcons vs. Packers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Packers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Packers.

Our projections give Robinson a 52.1% chance of scoring a TD at Lambeau Field, while the running back is a 14.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 52.1% probability
• Drake London (WR): 32.4%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 22.1%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 17.2%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 12.0%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 43.1% prob.
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 32.6%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 31.4%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 28.3%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 24.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 14.5% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 7.7%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 4.9%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 3.7%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 2.5%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 10.9% prob.
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 7.6%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 7.3%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 6.4%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 5.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Packers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 212 passing yards, while the Packers' Jordan Love is expected to throw for 235 yards.

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 81 yds
• Brian Robinson: 25 yds
• Michael Penix: 9 yds

Packers rushing

• Kaleb Johnson: 35 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 31 yds
• Chris Brooks: 22 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 70 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 39 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 38 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 25 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 16 yds

Packers receiving

• Christian Watson: 73 yds
• Matthew Golden: 58 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 46 yds
• Skyy Moore: 17 yds
• Jonnu Smith: 14 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 game between the Packers and Falcons at Lambeau Field is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Lambeau Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Packers, with a 67.0% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.