Packers vs. Falcons parlay picks: Bet these Thursday Night Football props at boosted +600 odds on bet365

Week 3 of NFL betting kicks off with Packers vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football, for Green Bay's home debut at Lambeau Field on September 24, where the Packers have won 13 straight home openers and featuring the season debut of Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.

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Packers vs. Falcons Thursday Night Football preview

Atlanta's biggest change is at quarterback, as Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start since tearing his ACL last November, taking over from Cooper Rush.

The offense badly needs it. The Falcons have scored just 16 points in two games, including a 34-3 home loss to Carolina, and their pass catchers have produced league-low receiving totals.

With Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson around him, Penix has the talent to turn that around, but it's a lot to ask on a short week in a hostile road stadium, where Green Bay is going for an NFL record 14-straight home opener wins.

Green Bay avoided an 0-2 start with an overtime win over the Jets, but it hasn't been smooth. The Packers lead the league in penalties and rank last in rushing yards.

As 4.5-point favorites, the Dimers model gives Green Bay a 68.9% chance to win, and 52.7% chance to cover the spread, with a 50/50 model split on the O/U 42.5.

Our Packers vs. Falcons same game parlay picks

The three legs for tonight's parlay, each backed by the Dimers Pro data and straight from our NFL Projections Hub, featuring in-depth player-level insights for every single game.

Leg 1: Matthew Golden 50+ receiving yards

The data case: First up, we're looking at second-year WR Matthew Golden to tally 50+ receiving yards vs. the Falcons.

After an underutilized rookie season, the Packers parted ways with  Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, vacating 130+ targets and committing to Golden as their top option alongside Christian Watson, and the impact is clear.

Golden has 10 catches for 153 yards on 18 targets after two games, nearly half his yardage total over 14 games last year, and the Dimers model projects him for 58.5 receiving yards on Thursday night, third in the game and second on the team, 12 yards ahead of TE Tucker Kraft at third.

With Jayden Reed now out and an unreliable running game, the Packers' offense is even more likely to move through its top receivers, and Atlanta just allowed three individual Panthers receivers to clear 60 yards on Sunday.

Leg 2: Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards

The data case: The most talented player on the offensive side of the ball in this game, Bijan Robinson has been the lone bright spot for Atlanta through two games.

He's recorded 83 and 71 rushing yards on the ground and 99 in the passing game, accounting for 45% of the team's total offensive production, and the only one to score.

Atlanta will be starting Michael Penix Jr. for the first time since his ACL injury last season and it's reasonable to expect they'll lean on their best player to get him comfortable for his first action in 10 months.

The Packers haven't allowed much on the ground so far, with Jordan Mason the leading rusher against them through two games with 59 yards, but Robinson is arguably the best back in the league, with a Dimers projection to match.

His 80.8 rushing yard projection ranks 5th on the week, and more than 10 yards over his target line, which he's hit in 12 of his last 13 games dating back to Week 10 of last season.

Leg 3: Christian Watson to score a TD

The data case: Going back to the Packers' passing game, we'll look for Christian Watson to score in his third straight game to begin the season, after he's off to a career-best pace as a receiver.

Watson has hauled in 10 of 19 targets for 188 yards and three scores, cashing his 1 and 2+ touchdown props in Week 1, and drawing those same edges again.

The Falcons allowed a perfect 4 TD to 0 INT ratio through two games and numerous big plays in their Week 2 blowout loss to the Packers.

Watson is our second-most likely player to score in this game and the highest for the Packers at 43.4%, giving us a strong probability and a betting edge as seen in our best NFL props.

Bet this Packers vs. Falcons same game parlay at boosted +600 odds on bet365

Base odds for this same game parlay come out to +525, but with boosted odds at bet365, bettors can get this at +600.

Our boosted same game parlay in Packers vs. Falcons.

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