Bills vs. Raiders prediction favors Buffalo to win in NFL Week 6 [2026]

Since our Bills-Raiders predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Raiders, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bills a 71.7% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 29-23.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Bills offense
• Raiders offense
• Bills team rating

According to our model, the Bills (-4.5) have a 57.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points has a 54.8% chance of staying under.

The key factors that make the under more likely are:

• Raiders recent performance
• Raiders pace

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bills -4.5 (-104) / Raiders +4.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Bills -212, Raiders +212
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (+104/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bills -4.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bills @ 68¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 54.5 @ 52¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills -4.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bills vs. Raiders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Raiders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6, Josh Allen is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Raiders.

Our projections give Allen a 57.5% chance of getting in for six at Allegiant Stadium, while the quarterback is a 13.2% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 57.5% probability
• James Cook (RB): 55.5%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 28.3%
• Keon Coleman (WR): 23.6%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 22.9%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 47.5% prob.
• Brock Bowers (TE): 47.2%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 23.3%
• Michael Mayer (TE): 20.0%
• Cody White (WR): 18.4%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 13.2% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 12.4%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 5.1%
• Keon Coleman (WR): 4.1%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 4.0%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 10.2% prob.
• Brock Bowers (TE): 10.1%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 4.2%
• Michael Mayer (TE): 3.5%
• Cody White (WR): 3.2%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Raiders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 250 passing yards. The Raiders' Kirk Cousins is expected to throw for 256 yards.

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 100 yds
• Josh Allen: 40 yds
• Ty Johnson: 17 yds

Raiders rushing

• Ashton Jeanty: 55 yds
• Mike Washington: 20 yds
• Kirk Cousins: 5 yds

Bills receiving

• Dalton Kincaid: 57 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 51 yds
• Keon Coleman: 46 yds
• Joshua Palmer: 27 yds
• Ty Johnson: 19 yds

Raiders receiving

• Brock Bowers: 76 yds
• Tre Tucker: 46 yds
• Michael Mayer: 31 yds
• Ashton Jeanty: 30 yds
• Jalen Nailor: 27 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 matchup between the Raiders and Bills at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to start at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 71.7% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 6 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.