Bears vs. Falcons prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win in NFL Week 6 [2026]

Since our Bears-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bears and Falcons, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Bears a 56.2% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 26-25.

Key factors favoring the Bears:

• Bears offense
• Bears QB situation
• Bears team rating

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Bears and Falcons each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 51.5 points has a 52.3% chance of going over.

Here's what's driving the over's higher probability::

• Playing conditions
• Falcons recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 6 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bears -1.5 (+108) / Falcons +1.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Bears -106, Falcons +104
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bears -1.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Bears @ 51¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 51.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bears to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bears vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bears vs. Falcons?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 6, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bears vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 64.5% chance of scoring a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the running back is a 17.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 56.4% probability
• Colston Loveland (TE): 27.3%
• Luther Burden (WR): 26.9%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 26.5%
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 23.6%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 64.5% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 34.4%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 26.7%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 21.0%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 14.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 14.6% prob.
• Colston Loveland (TE): 5.6%
• Luther Burden (WR): 5.5%
• Rome Odunze (WR): 5.4%
• Roschon Johnson (RB): 4.7%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 17.9% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 7.3%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 5.4%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 4.1%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 2.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bears and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 6 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bears' Caleb Williams is projected for 233 passing yards, while the Falcons' Michael Penix is expected to throw for 237 yards.

Bears rushing

• D'Andre Swift: 71 yds
• Caleb Williams: 25 yds
• Roschon Johnson: 25 yds

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 98 yds
• Brian Robinson: 35 yds
• Michael Penix: 8 yds

Bears receiving

• Luther Burden: 57 yds
• Rome Odunze: 48 yds
• Colston Loveland: 40 yds
• Kalif Raymond: 34 yds
• D'Andre Swift: 19 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 92 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 35 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 32 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 30 yds
• Zachariah Branch: 17 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 6 matchup between the Falcons and Bears at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bears, with a 56.2% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.