New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Experts release early Week 4 preview [2026]

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will meet in Week 4 of the NFL season at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, October 4, 2026, starting at 1:00 PM ET.

Initial simulations from Dimers' trusted NFL model favor the Bills as the most likely winner of this AFC East rivalry clash.

For updates all week long, including best bets, player prop projections and touchdown probabilities, check out our interactive Patriots vs. Bills predictions page.

New England vs. Buffalo early predictions

Leveraging trusted machine learning and analysis, we have simulated the Patriots vs. Bills game 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage. Here are the latest insights:

• Straight up win probabilities: Patriots 28.7%, Bills 71.3%
• Predicted final score: Patriots 20-27 Bills
• Spread: Patriots (+6.5) 50.0%, Bills (-6.5) 50.0%
• Total points (48.5): Over 50.0%, Under 50.0%

As of September 28, 2026, these Patriots-Bills figures and predictions reflect the latest data and insights available.

Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 details

Sunday's game between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled for October 4, 2026.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

Patriots vs. Bills opening odds

We've researched the best betting odds across America for this Week 4 game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +6.5 (+108), Bills -6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Patriots +275, Bills -270
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-108/-104)

Odds may continue to move—track live changes via our NFL odds page.

NFL Week 4 promo

Using our full NFL Week 3 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' Patriots vs. Bills predictions with the below DraftKings Sportsbook offer:

Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 71.3% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 4 of the NFL season. Dimers.com will provide full game coverage closer to kickoff, so stay tuned for updates.

Enhanced by AI and automation, this article delivers quick, accurate insights on the Patriots vs. Bills matchup, with human oversight maintaining high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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