0-5 Titans and Chargers aim to end skids as Week 6 underdogs

The Titans and Chargers are both 0-5 for the first time in franchise memory, as are the Dolphins, who enter a Week 6 bye as part of the first trio of teams from the same conference to open a season winless in 28 years. Both Tennessee and Los Angeles now get a tough follow-up in Week 6: the Titans visit the Colts, and the Chargers travel to the unbeaten Chiefs. Dimers’ NFL predictions model gives Indianapolis a 74.1% win probability and Kansas City a 78.4% mark, long odds for either winless team to flip.

But both games share the same pressure point.

According to Dimers' NFL player projections, Jonathan Taylor carries a 70.5% touchdown probability for the Colts, and Kenneth Walker III sits at 59.8% for the Chiefs, by far the two highest marks on either board this week. Neither favorite is bringing a fully rounded offense into Sunday.

Taking away the lead back is the one real lever both Tennessee and Los Angeles have to pull, even if it’s a long shot either way.

A rough five weeks for two rebuilding teams

The Titans were shut out in the end zone for the first time all season in a 26-3 loss to the Texans last week, managing just 187 total yards while Cam Ward was sacked four times. It’s the first season under coach Robert Saleh, hired in January after Tennessee fired Brian Callahan during a 1-5 start in 2025.

The Titans haven’t been blown out all year, though: their first two losses, 23-10 to the Jets and 24-20 to the Eagles, were both one-score games into the fourth quarter. The Chargers, meanwhile, dropped their fifth straight to the Broncos and now draw the toughest matchup of the three winless AFC teams, a trip to Arrowhead Stadium against a Chiefs team that hasn’t lost yet.

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Stop Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts don’t have a plan B

Sunday’s Colts-Titans game at Lucas Oil Stadium is the first meeting between these AFC South rivals this season, and Indianapolis enters it without much of its back end at full strength. Cornerback Kenny Moore II (Achilles) has missed practice time, corner Xavien Howard and safety Daniel Scott have both dealt with injuries of their own, and linebacker Zaire Franklin has been limited with an ankle issue.

Receiver Alec Pierce is already on injured reserve after a concussion, and Ashton Dulin, Arden Key, Darius Slayton and Sean McKeon all carried questionable tags into the weekend.

Indianapolis is 2-3 this season under quarterback Daniel Jones after last year’s playoff run, which has left some wondering whether that 2025 surge was the real Colts or a mirage.

The bigger tell is how the Colts’ scoring is distributed. Taylor projects for 88 rushing yards and that 70.5% touchdown probability, while the next-best options, tight end Tyler Warren and receiver Josh Downs, sit at 35.0% and 27.7%.

The sportsbooks have Indianapolis favored by 6.5 points, which Dimers has them covering 56.4% of the time in our simulations, and the total has crept up to 44.5 with the model now split almost exactly down the middle on whether it goes over. If the Titans’ front seven can keep Taylor under control, Jones doesn’t have an obvious second weapon to turn to, and a one-dimensional Colts offense is exactly the kind of game that’s kept Tennessee’s losses close all season.

The Titans’ own scoring runs through Tony Pollard (34.2% touchdown probability) and receivers Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate, with Tate projected for a team-high 58 receiving yards. Cam Ward doesn’t need to outplay Jones, he needs his defense to force Jones to try.

Kansas City doesn’t need peak Mahomes with Kenneth Walker in the backfield

When it comes to the Chiefs-Chargers matchup, Los Angeles’ bigger problem Sunday isn’t just Kansas City’s unbeaten record, it’s the state of its own offensive line. Left tackle Rashawn Slater had ankle surgery this week and isn’t expected back before Week 10 at the earliest, joining tackle Trevor Penning (concussion) and guard Trey Pipkins III (knee) on injured reserve, while right tackle Joe Alt is still being evaluated by a specialist for a neck injury. Tight end David Njoku is out for the season with a fibula injury.

Quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown five touchdowns against seven interceptions through five games, completing 59.4% of his passes, numbers that track with how often he’s played behind replacement parts.

Kansas City’s offense has its own version of the Taylor problem, just with a twist: Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP who signed with the Chiefs in free agency, projects for 89 rushing yards and a 59.8% touchdown probability, the highest number in the game, while Patrick Mahomes’ passing line, 232 projected yards, looks more like a complement to Walker than the whole operation.

The sportsbooks have the Chiefs favored by 7.5 points, a number Dimers says they cover 54.5% of the time to the Chargers’ 45.5%, with the total at 42.5 and the over and under separated by less than two points of probability.

If Los Angeles can do to Walker what Tennessee needs to do to Taylor, Mahomes is forced to beat a patched-together Chargers secondary by himself, something he hasn’t had to do much of with a new workhorse back in the fold.

Los Angeles is working a crowded backfield of its own, with Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal all carrying real touchdown equity at 28.1%, 19.9% and 20.7%, a split that mirrors the uncertainty up front. Ladd McConkey remains Herbert’s top target by score probability at 24.6%, and Quentin Johnston projects for a team-high 35 receiving yards, enough to keep Los Angeles competitive if its defense does its part first.

Dimers Pro subscribers get that same breakdown, win probabilities, spreads and full player projections, for every game on the Week 6 board, not just these two long shots. It’s built for exactly this kind of week, when a favorite’s whole offense can be traced back to one player. Subscriptions can be canceled or paused anytime.

Treat Tennessee and Los Angeles as what the numbers say they are this week: teams with one specific, defensible path to a result, not a likely one. Bet within your means, and if you want support setting limits, Dimers’ responsible gambling resources are there whenever you need them.