Blackhawks vs. Lightning prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to beat the Chicago Blackhawks at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Blackhawks vs. Lightning prediction gives Tampa Bay a 74.4% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Blackhawks to cover at +1.5.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning key predictions

• Lightning win probability: 74.4%
• Blackhawks win probability: 25.6%
• Lightning -1.5 puck line: 53.1% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 53.3% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Blackhawks moneyline: 20¢ (Novig)
• Lightning moneyline: -420 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Blackhawks +1.5: 40¢ (Novig)
• Lightning -1.5: 61¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: -105 (BetRivers)
• Under 6.5 goals: 49¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning pick: Blackhawks +1.5 (40¢)

Our model makes the Lightning the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Blackhawks to cover the +1.5 puck line at 40¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Blackhawks an implied cover probability of 40.0%, while our model puts it at 46.9%.

That's a 6.9% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Blackhawks vs. Lightning goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Jake Guentzel of the Lightning leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 43.8%, ahead of teammate Nikita Kucherov (42.6%). Chicago's most likely goal-scorer, Roman Kantserov, is further back at 33.5%. Guentzel also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 9.4%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 43.8%
2. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 42.6%
3. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 42.2%
4. Brayden Point (Lightning): 35.1%
5. Roman Kantserov (Blackhawks): 33.5%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 9.4%
2. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 9.3%
3. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 8.6%
4. Brayden Point (Lightning): 7.3%
5. Roman Kantserov (Blackhawks): 7.0%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Blackhawks vs. Lightning prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Blackhawks vs. Lightning predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Blackhawks vs. Lightning game details

• Matchup: Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.