Canadiens vs. Stars prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 29, 2026

The Dallas Stars are favored to beat the Montreal Canadiens at American Airlines Center on Thursday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Canadiens vs. Stars prediction gives Dallas a 56.7% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Canadiens as the underdog.

Canadiens vs. Stars key predictions

• Stars win probability: 56.7%
• Canadiens win probability: 43.3%
• Canadiens +1.5 puck line: 65.1% cover probability
• Under 6 goals: 53.0% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Canadiens vs. Stars odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Canadiens moneyline: 40¢ (Novig)
• Stars moneyline: 60¢ (Novig)
• Canadiens +1.5: 64¢ (Novig)
• Stars -1.5: 37¢ (Novig)
• Over 6 goals: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Under 6 goals: -110 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Canadiens vs. Stars pick: Canadiens moneyline (40¢)

Our model makes the Stars the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Canadiens moneyline at 40¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Canadiens an implied win probability of 40.5%, while our model puts it at 43.3%.

That's a 2.8% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Canadiens vs. Stars goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Jason Robertson of the Stars leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 39.7%, followed by Montreal's Cole Caufield (38.5%). Caufield leads the first goal-scorer projections at 9.0%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Jason Robertson (Stars): 39.7%
2. Cole Caufield (Canadiens): 38.5%
3. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 35.8%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 32.4%
5. Roope Hintz (Stars): 25.7%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Cole Caufield (Canadiens): 9.0%
2. Jason Robertson (Stars): 8.7%
3. Wyatt Johnston (Stars): 7.7%
4. Mikko Rantanen (Stars): 6.8%
5. Roope Hintz (Stars): 5.1%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Canadiens vs. Stars prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Canadiens vs. Stars predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Canadiens vs. Stars game details

• Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs. Dallas Stars
• Date: Thursday, October 29, 2026
• Puck drop: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.