Jets vs. Lightning prediction, odds, pick for Oct. 29, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to beat the Winnipeg Jets at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Jets vs. Lightning prediction gives Tampa Bay a 65.1% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Jets to cover at +1.5.

Jets vs. Lightning key predictions

• Lightning win probability: 65.1%
• Jets win probability: 34.9%
• Jets +1.5 puck line: 57.8% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 58.3% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Jets vs. Lightning odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Jets moneyline: 33¢ (Novig)
• Lightning moneyline: 68¢ (Novig)
• Jets +1.5: 55¢ (Novig)
• Lightning -1.5: 46¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: +120 (DraftKings)
• Under 6.5 goals: -139 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Jets vs. Lightning pick: Jets +1.5 (55¢)

Our model makes the Lightning the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Jets to cover the +1.5 puck line at 55¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Jets an implied cover probability of 55.0%, while our model puts it at 57.8%.

That's a 2.8% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Jets vs. Lightning goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Nikita Kucherov of the Lightning leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 40.0%, followed by Winnipeg's Kyle Connor (38.0%). Connor and Kucherov share the highest first goal-scorer probability at 8.2% each.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 40.0%
2. Kyle Connor (Jets): 38.0%
3. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 37.7%
4. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 37.4%
5. Mark Scheifele (Jets): 32.9%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Kyle Connor (Jets): 8.2%
2. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 8.2%
3. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 7.9%
4. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 7.7%
5. Mark Scheifele (Jets): 7.0%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Jets vs. Lightning prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Jets vs. Lightning predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Jets vs. Lightning game details

• Matchup: Winnipeg Jets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, October 29, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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