Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [9/29/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Canadiens a 51.9% chance of beating the Maple Leafs. According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 72.1% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53.7% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-250) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+220)
• Moneyline: Canadiens -105, Maple Leafs -105
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Canadiens +1.5 @ -250 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Canadiens @ -105 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -104 via BetRivers

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Caufield a 41.2% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 41.2% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 30.2% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 27.8% probability
• Chris Kreider: 24.0% probability
• Alex Newhook: 20.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 35.6% probability
• William Nylander: 33.1% probability
• John Tavares: 30.2% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 25.6% probability
• Gavin McKenna: 20.6% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 8.6% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 5.7% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 5.5% probability
• Chris Kreider: 4.3% probability
• Alex Newhook: 3.8% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• William Nylander: 6.8% probability
• Auston Matthews: 6.4% probability
• John Tavares: 5.6% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 4.8% probability
• Gavin McKenna: 3.6% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Tuesday's action between the Maple Leafs and Canadiens at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Canadiens, with a 51.9% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Tuesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.