Lightning vs. Wild prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 7, 2026

The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to beat the Minnesota Wild at Grand Casino Arena on Saturday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Lightning vs. Wild prediction gives Tampa Bay a 52.4% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Wild as the underdog.

Lightning vs. Wild key predictions

• Lightning win probability: 52.4%
• Wild win probability: 47.6%
• Wild +1.5 puck line: 68.0% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 53.1% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Lightning vs. Wild odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track.

• Lightning moneyline: -137 (BetRivers)
• Wild moneyline: 43¢ (Novig)
• Lightning -1.5: 36¢ (Novig)
• Wild +1.5: 65¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 50¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 51¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Lightning vs. Wild pick: Wild ML (43¢)

Our model makes the Lightning the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Wild moneyline at 43¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the Wild an implied win probability of 42.5%, while our model puts it at 47.6%.

That's a 5.1% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Lightning vs. Wild goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Kirill Kaprizov of the Wild leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Saturday's game at 48.3%, ahead of teammate Matt Boldy (40.3%). Tampa Bay's most likely goal-scorer, Jake Guentzel, is further back at 36.3%. Kaprizov also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 10.8%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Kirill Kaprizov (Wild): 48.3%
2. Matt Boldy (Wild): 40.3%
3. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 36.3%
4. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 35.5%
5. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 33.2%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Kirill Kaprizov (Wild): 10.8%
2. Matt Boldy (Wild): 8.3%
3. Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 7.0%
4. Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 6.9%
5. Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 6.7%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Lightning vs. Wild prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Lightning vs. Wild predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Lightning vs. Wild game details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Puck drop: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Grand Casino Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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