Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 20, 2026

The Vegas Golden Knights are favored to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Lightning vs. Golden Knights prediction gives Vegas a 51.6% chance of winning at T-Mobile Arena, with the latest odds also suggesting value in betting on the Golden Knights to win.

Lightning vs. Golden Knights: Key predictions

• Golden Knights win probability: 51.6%
• Lightning win probability: 48.4%
• Lightning +1.5 puck line: 69.1% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 54.9% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Predictions last updated: October 20, 2026, at 6:50 PM ET.

Lightning vs. Golden Knights odds

Here are the best available odds for Tuesday's matchup across sportsbooks and prediction markets monitored by Dimers.

• Lightning moneyline: 50¢ (Novig)
• Golden Knights moneyline: 50¢ (Novig)
• Lightning +1.5: 70¢ (Novig)
• Golden Knights -1.5: 30¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 46¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: -121 (bet365)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Golden Knights moneyline (50¢)

With Vegas favored to beat Tampa Bay, Dimers' top value bet is the Golden Knights moneyline at 50¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply the Golden Knights have a 50.0% chance of winning, while our model puts that probability at 51.6%.

That's a 1.6% edge in the Golden Knights' favor, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Lightning vs. Golden Knights goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

Brandon Hagel of the Lightning leads Tuesday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 36.1%, ahead of teammate Nikita Kucherov (36.0%). Vegas's most likely goal-scorer, Mark Stone, is close behind at 34.2%. Hagel also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.5%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 36.1%
• Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 36.0%
• Mark Stone (Golden Knights): 34.2%
• Trevor Connelly (Golden Knights): 33.0%
• Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 31.5%

First goal-scorer predictions

• Brandon Hagel (Lightning): 7.5%
• Nikita Kucherov (Lightning): 7.1%
• Mark Stone (Golden Knights): 6.7%
• Trevor Connelly (Golden Knights): 6.4%
• Jake Guentzel (Lightning): 5.5%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Lightning vs. Golden Knights predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Tuesday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Recommended bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Lightning vs. Golden Knights predictions with Dimers Pro.

Lightning vs. Golden Knights game details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vegas Golden Knights
• Date: Tuesday, October 20, 2026
• Puck drop: 10:30 PM ET/7:30 PM PT
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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