Wild vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for Wild vs. Lightning in the NHL on Thursday, October 8, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, game total, and player props.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Wild
2
3
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Wild
0 2 0 2
Lightning
2 1 0 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Wild
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Wild
0 2 0 2
Lightning
2 1 0 3
P3 19:54 Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 19:42 Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 18:09 Lightning shot blocked by teammate
P3 16:49 Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 16:32 Shot missed by Matt Boldy
P3 15:52 Shot on goal by Jared Spurgeon saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 15:33 Shot on goal by Zach Bogosian saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 14:24 Shot on goal by Ilya Mikheyev saved by Jesper Wallstedt
P3 13:35 Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 12:59 Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
P3 12:47 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nico Sturm
P3 11:11 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 11:01 Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jesper Wallstedt
P3 09:02 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Jonas Brodin
P3 06:14 Michael McCarron shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 05:38 Shot on goal by Blake Coleman saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 04:32 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Matt Boldy
P3 03:49 Shot on goal by Bobby Brink saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 02:48 Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
P3 02:17 Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jesper Wallstedt
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Dennis Hildeby
  3. P3 19:44
    Wild won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  4. P3 19:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
  5. P3 18:46
    Stoppage - Visitor Timeout
  6. P3 18:15
    Wild won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  7. P3 18:09
    SHOT
    Lightning shot blocked by teammate
  8. P3 18:02
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  9. P3 16:57
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  10. P3 16:57
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  11. P3 16:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  12. P3 16:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Boldy saved by Dennis Hildeby
  13. P3 16:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Boldy
  14. P3 15:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jared Spurgeon saved by Dennis Hildeby
  15. P3 15:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Bogosian saved by Dennis Hildeby
  16. P3 14:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ilya Mikheyev saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  17. P3 13:38
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  18. P3 13:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
  19. P3 12:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  20. P3 12:47
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nico Sturm
  21. P3 11:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  22. P3 11:08
    Giveaway by Zach Bogosian in defensive zone
  23. P3 11:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  24. P3 09:02
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Jonas Brodin
  25. P3 08:09
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Conor Geekie in offensive zone
  26. P3 07:35
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Conor Geekie in offensive zone
  27. P3 06:14
    SHOT
    Michael McCarron shot blocked by John Carlson
  28. P3 05:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Blake Coleman saved by Dennis Hildeby
  29. P3 04:32
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Matt Boldy
  30. P3 03:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby Brink saved by Dennis Hildeby
  31. P3 02:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  32. P3 02:20
    Nico Sturm won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  33. P3 02:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  34. P3 02:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  35. P3 01:08
    Wild won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  36. P3 01:08
    Stoppage - Icing
  37. P3 00:00
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  38. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  39. P2 19:55
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  40. P2 19:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Bogosian saved by Dennis Hildeby
  41. P2 19:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Dennis Hildeby
  42. P2 19:15
    Giveaway by Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  43. P2 18:42
    Stoppage - Offside
  44. P2 18:32
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  45. P2 18:24
    Giveaway by David Spacek in defensive zone
  46. P2 17:54
    Giveaway by Quinn Hughes in offensive zone
  47. P2 17:40
    SHOT
    Zach Bogosian shot blocked by Max Crozier
  48. P2 16:54
    Jared Spurgeon credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  49. P2 15:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by John Carlson
  50. P2 15:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  51. P2 14:57
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  52. P2 14:52
    Shorthanded - Michael McCarron won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  53. P2 14:52
    Penalty to Zach Bogosian 2 minutes for Misconduct
  54. P2 14:21
    Nico Sturm won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
  55. P2 14:01
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Wild in neutral zone
  56. P2 12:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matt Boldy
  57. P2 12:48
    Power play - Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  58. P2 12:48
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  59. P2 12:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matt Boldy
  60. P2 12:27
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  61. P2 11:23
    Marcus Foligno credited with hit on Max Crozier in offensive zone
  62. P2 11:18
    Jared Spurgeon credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in offensive zone
  63. P2 11:12
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  64. P2 11:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yakov Trenin
  65. P2 10:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  66. P2 09:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Ryan Hartman
  67. P2 09:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Dennis Hildeby
  68. P2 08:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Matt Boldy shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  69. P2 08:11
    Power play - Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  70. P2 06:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  71. P2 06:23
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  72. P2 06:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  73. P2 05:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  74. P2 05:49
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Ryan Hartman in offensive zone
  75. P2 05:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  76. P2 05:43
    Stoppage - Icing
  77. P2 04:55
    Danila Yurov won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  78. P2 04:02
    Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in offensive zone
  79. P2 03:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  80. P2 02:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yakov Trenin
  81. P2 02:33
    Michael McCarron won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  82. P2 02:32
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  83. P2 01:10
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Zach Bogosian
  84. P2 01:09
    Danila Yurov won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  85. P2 01:09
    Stoppage - Icing
  86. P2 00:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Boldy
  87. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  88. P1 19:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  89. P1 18:20
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Michael McCarron
  90. P1 18:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nico Sturm saved by Dennis Hildeby
  91. P1 17:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Quinn Hughes saved by Dennis Hildeby
  92. P1 17:54
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  93. P1 17:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  94. P1 17:14
    Joel Eriksson Ek won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  95. P1 17:06
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  96. P1 16:58
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Bobby Brink
  97. P1 15:54
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Danila Yurov
  98. P1 15:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jared Spurgeon saved by Dennis Hildeby
  99. P1 15:13
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  100. P1 12:40
    Shorthanded - Nico Sturm won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  101. P1 12:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  102. P1 12:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  103. P1 12:10
    Delayed penalty (against the Wild)
  104. P1 12:00
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Matt Boldy
  105. P1 11:01
    Ryan Hartman won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  106. P1 11:01
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  107. P1 10:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Conor Geekie saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  108. P1 09:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  109. P1 09:08
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Maxim Shabanov
  110. P1 08:39
    Danila Yurov won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  111. P1 07:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
  112. P1 07:11
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in defensive zone
  113. P1 07:11
    Stoppage - Icing
  114. P1 06:49
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in offensive zone
  115. P1 06:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  116. P1 05:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jesper Wallstedt
  117. P1 05:26
    Wild won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  118. P1 04:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  119. P1 04:23
    SHOT
    Blake Coleman shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  120. P1 01:59
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Nico Sturm in offensive zone
  121. P1 01:59
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  122. P1 01:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  123. P1 01:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  124. P1 00:52
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Danila Yurov in defensive zone
  125. P1 00:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  126. P1 00:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Joel Eriksson Ek saved by Dennis Hildeby
  127. P1 00:00
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Joel Eriksson Ek in neutral zone
Stats
Wild
STATS
Lightning
36Shots on Goal35
57% Faceoff Win % 43%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
24Hits12
20 Shots Blocked 14
14Giveaways10
WildMIN
LightningTB
36Shots on Goal35
57% Faceoff Win % 43%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/1
6Penalty Infraction Mins4
24Hits12
20 Shots Blocked 14
14Giveaways10

Wild vs. Lightning prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Thursday

  • Teams: Minnesota Wild vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
  • Puck drop: 7:00PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current betting odds

  • Puck line: Wild (+1.5, -200), Lightning (-1.5, +170)
  • Moneyline: Wild +130, Lightning -141
  • Total (Over/Under): 6 goals (-117/+100)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Wild: 44.4%
  • Lightning: 55.6%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Wild vs. Lightning player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

  • Kirill Kaprizov, Wild: 44.3%
  • Matt Boldy, Wild: 37.7%
  • Nikita Kucherov, Lightning: 40.5%
  • Brandon Hagel, Lightning: 36.9%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Wild a win probability of 44.4%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 55.6%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Wild in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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