Alejandro Tabilo vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Alejandro Tabilo will square off with Tommy Paul in the round of 32 at the ATP Tokyo event on Wednesday.

Dimers' proven tennis model projects Tommy Paul as the most likely winner in this Tabilo vs. Paul prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.

Tabilo vs. Paul prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's Tabilo-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Paul a 72% chance of beating Tabilo at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Paul has a 66% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 60% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Tommy Paul -267, Alejandro Tabilo +240
• First Set: Tabilo +175, Paul -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Paul @ -267 via DraftKings
• First Set: Paul @ -150 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 23.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Alejandro Tabilo and Tommy Paul is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Tommy Paul, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Tabilo at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.