Tommy Paul vs. Taylor Fritz prediction, odds, picks for ATP Lyon Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Paul-Fritz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Fritz a 60% chance of winning against Paul at the ATP Lyon Open tournament. Additionally, Fritz has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 56% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Taylor Fritz -200, Tommy Paul +175
• First Set: Paul +130, Fritz -164

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Paul @ +175 via DraftKings
• First Set: Fritz @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Tommy Paul to win.

Although Paul is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Lyon Open match between Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 8:00 AM ET.

• Who: Tommy Paul vs. Taylor Fritz
• Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
• Approx. Time: 8:00 AM ET/5:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Lyon, France Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Taylor Fritz, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the ATP Lyon Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.