Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's de Minaur-Rublev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives de Minaur a 53% chance of winning against Rublev at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, de Minaur has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Rublev (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Andrey Rublev +110, Alex de Minaur -119
• First Set: de Minaur -125, Rublev +100

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rublev @ +110 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rublev @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Andrey Rublev to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev is scheduled to start on Sunday at 2:10 AM ET.

• Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:10 AM ET/11:10PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat Andrey Rublev at the ATP China Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.