Alexander Zverev vs. Novak Djokovic prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Zverev-Djokovic men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Zverev a 72% chance of beating Djokovic at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Zverev has a 68% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Zverev (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Novak Djokovic +240, Alexander Zverev -300
• First Set: Zverev -250, Djokovic +200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Djokovic @ +240 via DraftKings
• First Set: Djokovic @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Novak Djokovic to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic is scheduled to start on Sunday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Alexander Zverev vs. Novak Djokovic
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alexander Zverev, with a 72% win probability, will likely beat Novak Djokovic at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.