Alex de Minaur vs. Mariano Navone prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's de Minaur-Navone men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives de Minaur an 84% chance of winning against Navone at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, de Minaur has a 78% chance of winning the first set, while the under 20.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Mariano Navone +460, Alex de Minaur -592
• First Set: de Minaur -400, Navone +300

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Navone @ +460 via DraftKings
• First Set: Navone @ -105 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Mariano Navone to win.

Although Navone is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Alex de Minaur and Mariano Navone is scheduled to start on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Mariano Navone
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alex de Minaur, with an 84% win probability, will likely beat Mariano Navone at the ATP China Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.