Alexandre Muller vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's Muller-Davidovich Fokina men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Davidovich Fokina a 64% chance of winning against Muller at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Davidovich Fokina has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Muller (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 23.5 games has a 58% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -227, Alexandre Muller +220
• First Set: Muller +175, Davidovich Fokina -227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Muller @ +220 via DraftKings
• First Set: Davidovich Fokina @ -140 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alexandre Muller to win.

Although Muller is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Alexandre Muller and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is scheduled to start on Sunday at 2:10 AM ET.

• Who: Alexandre Muller vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:10 AM ET/11:10PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Alexandre Muller at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.