Arthur Fils vs. Luca Van Assche prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's Fils-Van Assche men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Fils an 84% chance of beating Van Assche at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Fils has a 79% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Fils (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 20.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Luca Van Assche +503, Arthur Fils -667
• First Set: Fils -500, Van Assche +350

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Van Assche @ +503 via DraftKings
• First Set: Van Assche @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 20.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Arthur Fils and Luca Van Assche is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 3:00 AM ET.

• Who: Arthur Fils vs. Luca Van Assche
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 AM ET/12:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Arthur Fils, with an 84% win probability, will likely beat Luca Van Assche at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.