Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Medvedev-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev a 79% chance of winning against Carreno Busta at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 21.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta +333, Daniil Medvedev -424
• First Set: Medvedev -333, Carreno Busta +250

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Medvedev @ -424 via DraftKings
• First Set: Carreno Busta @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to start on Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.