Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jaume Munar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's Alcaraz-Munar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Alcaraz an 88% chance of defeating Munar at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has an 82% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Munar (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 19.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Jaume Munar +740, Carlos Alcaraz -1000
• First Set: Alcaraz -625, Munar +400

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Munar @ +740 via DraftKings
• First Set: Munar @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jaume Munar to win.

Although Munar is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jaume Munar is scheduled to start on Monday at 3:00 AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jaume Munar
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 AM ET/12:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat Jaume Munar at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.