Corentin Moutet vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for ATP Lyon Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Moutet-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Paul a 75% chance of winning against Moutet at the ATP Lyon Open tournament. Additionally, Paul has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Tommy Paul -355, Corentin Moutet +300
• First Set: Moutet +220, Paul -278

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Moutet @ +300 via DraftKings
• First Set: Paul @ -150 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Corentin Moutet to win.

Although Moutet is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Lyon Open match between Corentin Moutet and Tommy Paul is scheduled to start on Friday at 8:00 AM ET.

• Who: Corentin Moutet vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Approx. Time: 8:00 AM ET/5:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Lyon, France Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Tommy Paul, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat Corentin Moutet at the ATP Lyon Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.