Daniil Medvedev vs. Francisco Cerundolo prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Medvedev-Cerundolo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Medvedev a 68% chance of beating Cerundolo at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 65% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Cerundolo (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Francisco Cerundolo +218, Daniil Medvedev -250
• First Set: Medvedev -200, Cerundolo +162

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Cerundolo @ +218 via DraftKings
• First Set: Cerundolo @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Francisco Cerundolo to win.

Although Cerundolo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo is scheduled to start on Sunday at 4:30 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Francisco Cerundolo
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat Francisco Cerundolo at the ATP China Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.