Denis Shapovalov vs. Alejandro Tabilo prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Shapovalov-Tabilo men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Shapovalov a 56% chance of defeating Tabilo at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Shapovalov has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the oddsmakers have got it right with the -1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the over 22.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alejandro Tabilo +121, Denis Shapovalov -144
• First Set: Shapovalov -139, Tabilo +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Tabilo @ +121 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tabilo @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alejandro Tabilo to win.

Although Tabilo is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Tabilo is scheduled to start on Friday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Denis Shapovalov vs. Alejandro Tabilo
• Date: Friday, October 2, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Denis Shapovalov, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Tabilo at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.