Hubert Hurkacz vs. Denis Shapovalov prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's Hurkacz-Shapovalov men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Hurkacz a 56% chance of winning against Shapovalov at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Hurkacz has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show that the oddsmakers have got it right with the +1.5 games spread, with each player projected to have a 50-50 chance of covering, while the under 25.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Denis Shapovalov +147, Hubert Hurkacz -145
• First Set: Hurkacz -139, Shapovalov +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Shapovalov @ +147 via DraftKings
• First Set: Shapovalov @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Denis Shapovalov to win.

Although Shapovalov is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov is scheduled to begin on Monday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Denis Shapovalov
• Date: Monday, September 28, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Hubert Hurkacz, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Denis Shapovalov at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.