Karen Khachanov vs. Adrian Mannarino prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's Khachanov-Mannarino men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Khachanov a 74% chance of defeating Mannarino at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, Khachanov has a 71% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Khachanov (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Adrian Mannarino +265, Karen Khachanov -318
• First Set: Khachanov -250, Mannarino +200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Mannarino @ +265 via DraftKings
• First Set: Mannarino @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Adrian Mannarino to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Karen Khachanov and Adrian Mannarino is scheduled to start on Sunday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Karen Khachanov vs. Adrian Mannarino
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Karen Khachanov, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Adrian Mannarino at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.